Retail analytics firm Adobe forecasts U.S. online holiday spending will reach $221.8 billion in 2023. That would put spending up 4.8% year over year from $211.7 billion in 2022. Adobe measures the holiday season between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 based on online transactions.

Mobile shopping will be big in 2023

The Adobe holiday spending forecast predicts more than half of online spending (51.2%) will be made on mobile devices in 2023. That would be a significant increase from 44.88% last holiday season, according to Adobe data. 

The analytics firm says mobile spending will hit a record of $113 billion this holiday season, up 13.7% year over year. Mobile holiday spending is projected to be highest on Thanksgiving and Christmas, when consumers are most likely to be spending time with friends and family, Adobe says. 

Retailers will offer steep discounts

Adobe says holiday discounts will reach record levels this year, with sales up to 35% off listed prices. 

The vendor predicts toys, electronics and apparel will see the highest discounts. For example, toys will peak at 35% off listed price, Adobe says, compared to 34% off in 2022. Electronics discounts will likely hit 30%, up from 25% in 2022, and 25% for apparel, up from 19%. 

Cyber Week will be the time when consumers can find the biggest discounts, Adobe says. Cyber Week alone will drive $37.2 billion in online holiday spending, 16.8% of the total season, according to Adobe. That’s up 5.4% year over year. Adobe predicts Cyber Monday will be the single biggest shopping day of the season and the year, with $12 billion in spending. 

“Despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, we expect strong ecommerce growth this season on account of record discounts and flexible payment methods,” Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing at Adobe, said in a written statement.

BNPL keeps growing

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is projected to be used as a payment method for more online spending than ever this holiday season. Adobe projects BNPL will be used for $17 billion in online spending, an increase of $2.5 billion and 16.9% over 2022. 

November is slated to be the largest month of BNPL usage on record, with $9.3 billion in spending. Adobe predicts $782 million in spending with BNPL on Cyber Monday, surpassing the previous record of $658 million on the shopping holiday in 2022.

BNPL has already shown significant growth in 2023. As of October 2023, U.S. consumers spend $46.7 billion through the payment method, up 14.7% from the previous year. BNPL growth is greatest in the grocery, home and furniture and apparel categories, Adobe says.

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