The 2023 holiday season is fast approaching, and retailers are preparing for it. Accounting and consulting firm Deloitte announced Sept. 13 that it estimates 2023 holiday ecommerce sales to grow 10.3% to 12.8% over 2022.

Deloitte projects holiday ecommerce sales to total between $278 billion and $284 billion between November and January. That compares with 7.9% growth in 2022 to a total of $252 billion in holiday ecommerce spending.

Holiday ecommerce and overall retail sales

Ecommerce sales over the Cyber 5 period (the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) alone grew 4% year over year in 2022, Digital Commerce 360 reported at the time. They reached $35.27 billion in the five-day period, up from $33.90 billion in 2021. Digital Commerce 360 also found that holiday ecommerce sales in November and December 2022 increased 3.5% to $211.7 billion.

Deloitte also forecasts total holiday sales (online and offline) of retail and consumer products to total between $1.54 trillion and $1.56 trillion from November to January. That would be growth between 3.5% and 4.6% year over year in 2023. In 2022, Deloitte said, holiday sales grew 7.6% from November to January.

“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster. “This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”

Bachman added that Deloitte’s holiday ecommerce sales forecast also reflects a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings. That, plus inflation, will weigh on retail sales, he said.

Meanwhile, Nick Handrinos, vice chair of U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader at Deloitte, said holiday ecommerce sales should be strong this year. He said Deloitte expects “retail sales to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending.”

“This season, ecommerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” Handrinos said. “Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”

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